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1.
Epidemiology ; 35(2): 241-251, 2024 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38290143

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In the presence of effect measure modification, estimates of treatment effects from randomized controlled trials may not be valid in clinical practice settings. The development and application of quantitative approaches for extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings is an active area of research. METHODS: In this article, we provide researchers with a practical roadmap and four visualizations to assist in variable selection for models to extend treatment effects observed in trials to clinical practice settings and to assess model specification and performance. We apply this roadmap and visualizations to an example extending the effects of adjuvant chemotherapy (5-fluorouracil vs. plus oxaliplatin) for colon cancer from a trial population to a population of individuals treated in community oncology practices in the United States. RESULTS: The first visualization screens for potential effect measure modifiers to include in models extending trial treatment effects to clinical practice populations. The second visualization displays a measure of covariate overlap between the clinical practice populations and the trial population. The third and fourth visualizations highlight considerations for model specification and influential observations. The conceptual roadmap describes how the output from the visualizations helps interrogate the assumptions required to extend treatment effects from trials to target populations. CONCLUSIONS: The roadmap and visualizations can inform practical decisions required for quantitatively extending treatment effects from trials to clinical practice settings.


Assuntos
Neoplasias do Colo , Fluoruracila , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Fluoruracila/uso terapêutico , Oxaliplatina/uso terapêutico , Projetos de Pesquisa
2.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(3): 407-409, 2024 Feb 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37939152

RESUMO

In epidemiology, collider stratification bias, the bias resulting from conditioning on a common effect of two causes, is oftentimes considered a type of selection bias, regardless of the conditioning methods employed. In this commentary, we distinguish between two types of collider stratification bias: collider restriction bias due to restricting to one level of a collider (or a descendant of a collider) and collider adjustment bias through inclusion of a collider (or a descendant of a collider) in a regression model. We argue that categorizing collider adjustment bias as a form of selection bias may lead to semantic confusion, as adjustment for a collider in a regression model does not involve selecting a sample for analysis. Instead, we propose that collider adjustment bias can be better viewed as a type of overadjustment bias. We further provide two distinct causal diagram structures to distinguish collider restriction bias and collider adjustment bias. We hope that such a terminological distinction can facilitate easier and clearer communication.


Assuntos
Viés de Seleção , Humanos , Viés , Causalidade
3.
Epidemiology ; 35(2): 196-207, 2024 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38079241

RESUMO

Approaches to address measurement error frequently rely on validation data to estimate measurement error parameters (e.g., sensitivity and specificity). Acquisition of validation data can be costly, thus secondary use of existing data for validation is attractive. To use these external validation data, however, we may need to address systematic differences between these data and the main study sample. Here, we derive estimators of the risk and the risk difference that leverage external validation data to account for outcome misclassification. If misclassification is differential with respect to covariates that themselves are differentially distributed in the validation and study samples, the misclassification parameters are not immediately transportable. We introduce two ways to account for such covariates: (1) standardize by these covariates or (2) iteratively model the outcome. If conditioning on a covariate for transporting the misclassification parameters induces bias of the causal effect (e.g., M-bias), the former but not the latter approach is biased. We provide proof of identification, describe estimation using parametric models, and assess performance in simulations. We also illustrate implementation to estimate the risk of preterm birth and the effect of maternal HIV infection on preterm birth. Measurement error should not be ignored and it can be addressed using external validation data via transportability methods.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Transmissão Vertical de Doenças Infecciosas , Nascimento Prematuro , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Viés , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia
4.
J Pediatr Pharmacol Ther ; 28(5): 409-416, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38130497

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the effect of early initiation of dual therapy vs monotherapy on drug administration and related outcomes in mechanically ventilated, critically ill children. METHODS: We used the electronic medical record at a single tertiary medical center to conduct an active comparator, new user cohort study. We included children <18 years of age who were exposed to a sedative or analgesic within 6 hours of intubation. We used stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for confounding at baseline. We estimated the average effect of initial dual therapy vs monotherapy on outcomes including cumulative opioid, benzodiazepine, and dexmedetomidine dosing; sedation scores; time to double the opioid or benzodiazepine infusion rate; initiation of neuromuscular blockade within the first 7 days of follow-up; time to extubation; and 7-day all-cause in-hospital death. RESULTS: The cohort included 640 patients. Children receiving dual therapy received 0.03 mg/kg (95% CI, 0.02-0.04) more dexmedetomidine over the first 7 days after initiation of mechanical ventilation than did monotherapy patients. Dual therapy patients had similar sedation scores, time to double therapy, initiation of neuromuscular blockade, and time to extubation as monotherapy patients. Dual therapy patients had a lower incidence of death. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, initial dual therapy compared with monotherapy does not reduce overall drug administration during mechanical ventilation. The identified effect of dual therapy on mortality deserves further investigation.

5.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(9): e0001989, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37656670

RESUMO

Studies assessing patient-centred outcomes of novel rifampicin resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) diagnostics are rare and mostly apply conventional methods which may not adequately address biases. Even though the Xpert MTB/RIF molecular assay was endorsed a decade ago for simultaneous diagnosis of tuberculosis and RR-TB, the impact of the assay on mortality among people with RR-TB has not yet been assessed. We analysed data of an observational prospective cohort study (EXIT-RIF) performed in South Africa. We applied a causal inference approach using inverse odds of sampling weights to rectify survivor bias and selection bias caused by differing screening guidelines. We also adjusted for confounding using a marginal structural model with inverse probability of treatment weights. We estimated the total effect of an RR-TB diagnosis made by the Xpert assay versus the pre-Xpert diagnostic algorithm (entailing a targeted Line Probe Assay (LPA) among TB-confirmed patients) on two-year mortality and we assessed mediation by RR-treatment initiation. Of the 749 patients diagnosed with RR-TB [247 (33%) by the pre-Xpert diagnostic algorithm and 502 (67%) by the Xpert assay], 42.7% died. Of these, 364 (48.6%) patients died in the pre-Xpert group and 200 (39.8%) in the Xpert group. People diagnosed with RR-TB by the Xpert assay had a higher odds of RR-TB treatment initiation compared to those diagnosed by the targeted LPA-based diagnostic process (OR 2.79; 95%CI 2.19-3.56). Receiving an RR-TB diagnosis by Xpert resulted in a 28% reduction in the odds of mortality within 2 years after presentation to the clinic (ORCI 0.72; 95%CI 0.53-0.99). Causal mediation analysis suggests that the higher rate of RR-TB treatment initiation in people diagnosed by the Xpert assay explains the effect of Xpert on 2-year mortality [natural indirect effect odds ratio 0.90 (95%CI 0.85-0.96). By using causal inference methods in combination with high quality observational data, we could demonstrate that the introduction of the Xpert assay caused a 28% reduction in 2-year odds of mortality of RR-TB. This finding highlights the need for advocacy for a worldwide roll-out of rapid molecular tests. Because the effect is mainly caused by increased RR-TB treatment initiation, health care systems should also ensure timely initiation of effective treatment upon an RR-TB diagnosis.

6.
Stat Med ; 42(23): 4282-4298, 2023 10 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37525436

RESUMO

Inverse probability weighting can be used to correct for missing data. New estimators for the weights in the nonmonotone setting were introduced in 2018. These estimators are the unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator (UMLE) and the constrained Bayesian estimator (CBE), an alternative if UMLE fails to converge. In this work we describe and illustrate these estimators, and examine performance in simulation and in an applied example estimating the effect of anemia on spontaneous preterm birth in the Zambia Preterm Birth Prevention Study. We compare performance with multiple imputation (MI) and focus on the setting of an observational study where inverse probability of treatment weights are used to address confounding. In simulation, weighting was less statistically efficient at the smallest sample size and lowest exposure prevalence examined (n = 1500, 15% respectively) but in other scenarios statistical performance of weighting and MI was similar. Weighting had improved computational efficiency taking, on average, 0.4 and 0.05 times the time for MI in R and SAS, respectively. UMLE was easy to implement in commonly used software and convergence failure occurred just twice in >200 000 simulated cohorts making implementation of CBE unnecessary. In conclusion, weighting is an alternative to MI for nonmonotone missingness, though MI performed as well as or better in terms of bias and statistical efficiency. Weighting's superior computational efficiency may be preferred with large sample sizes or when using resampling algorithms. As validity of weighting and MI rely on correct specification of different models, both approaches could be implemented to check agreement of results.


Assuntos
Nascimento Prematuro , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Feminino , Teorema de Bayes , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Probabilidade , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Estatísticos
7.
AIDS ; 37(4): 679-688, 2023 03 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36728933

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Hypertension is a critical cause of cardiovascular disease, and women with HIV have a higher prevalence of hypertension than women without HIV. The relationship between hypertension and mortality has not been well characterized in women with treated HIV. Here, we estimate the effect of hypertension on 1-year risk of all-cause mortality among women with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States. DESIGN: An analysis of multicenter, observational cohort data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) collected between 1995 and 2019. METHODS: We included women with HIV who reported ever using ART. We used parametric g-computation to estimate the effect of hypertension (SBP ≥140  mmHg, DBP ≥90 mmHg, or use of hypertensive medication) on all-cause mortality within 1 year of a WIHS visit. RESULTS: Among 2929 unique women, we included 57 034 visits with a median age of 45 (interquartile range: 39, 52) years. Women had hypertension at 34.5% of visits, and 641 deaths occurred within 1 year of a study visit. Comparing women at visits with hypertension to women at visits without hypertension, the standardized 1-year risk ratio for mortality was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.01-1.33]. The risk ratios were higher in Hispanic (risk ratio: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.86-1.77) and non-Hispanic black women (risk ratio: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04-1.37) and lower in non-Hispanic white women (risk ratio: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.58-1.48). CONCLUSION: Among women with treated HIV, those with hypertension, compared with those without, had an increased 1-year risk of all-cause mortality.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Hipertensão , Feminino , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Fatores de Risco , HIV , Hipertensão/epidemiologia
8.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 17(2): e0011103, 2023 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36780437

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. To reduce transmission, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) improvements are promoted through a comprehensive public health strategy. Evidence supporting the role of WaSH in trachoma elimination is mixed and it remains unknown what WaSH coverages are needed to effectively reduce transmission. METHODS/FINDINGS: We used g-computation to estimate the impact on the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) when hypothetical WaSH interventions raised the minimum coverages from 5% to 100% for "nearby" face-washing water (<30 minutes roundtrip collection time) and adult latrine use in an evaluation unit (EU). For each scenario, we estimated the generalized prevalence difference as the TF1-9 prevalence under the intervention scenarios minus the observed prevalence. Data from 574 cross-sectional surveys conducted in 16 African and Eastern Mediterranean countries were included. Surveys were conducted from 2015-2019 with support from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project and Tropical Data. When modeling interventions among EUs that had not yet met the TF1-9 elimination target, increasing nearby face-washing water and latrine use coverages above 30% was generally associated with consistent decreases in TF1-9. For nearby face-washing water, we estimated a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 at 65% coverage, with a plateau upon reaching 85% coverage. For latrine use, the estimated decrease in TF1-9 accelerated from 80% coverage upward, with a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 by 85% coverage. Among EUs that had previously met the elimination target, results were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support Sustainable Development Goal 6 and provide insight into potential WaSH-related coverage targets for trachoma elimination. Targets can be tested in future trials to improve evidence-based WaSH guidance for trachoma.


Assuntos
Tracoma , Criança , Adulto , Humanos , Lactente , Tracoma/epidemiologia , Tracoma/prevenção & controle , Saneamento/métodos , Água , Estudos Transversais , Higiene , Prevalência
9.
Int J Gynaecol Obstet ; 160(3): 842-849, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35899762

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the difference between exposure effects and population attributable effects. METHODS: We examined the effect of mid-pregnancy short cervical length (<25 mm) on preterm birth using data from a prospective cohort of pregnant women in Lusaka, Zambia. Preterm birth was live birth or stillbirth before 37 weeks of pregnancy. For estimation, we used multivariable regression and parametric g-computation. RESULTS: Among 1409 women included in the analysis, short cervix was rare (2.4%); 13.6% of births were preterm. Exposure effect estimates were large (marginal risk ratio 2.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80-4.54), indicating that the preterm birth risk was substantially higher among women with a short cervix compared with women without a short cervix. However, the population attributable effect estimates were close to the null (risk ratio 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.10), indicating that an intervention to counteract the impact of short cervix on preterm birth would have minimal effect on the population risk of preterm birth. CONCLUSION: Although authors often refer to "the" effect, there are actually different types of effects, as we have illustrated here. In planning research, it is important to consider which effect to estimate to ensure that the estimate aligns with the research objective.


Assuntos
Nascimento Prematuro , Feminino , Gravidez , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Nascimento Prematuro/etiologia , Colo do Útero/diagnóstico por imagem , Estudos Prospectivos , Medida do Comprimento Cervical , Zâmbia/epidemiologia
10.
Am J Epidemiol ; 192(2): 246-256, 2023 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36222677

RESUMO

Pooled testing has been successfully used to expand SARS-CoV-2 testing, especially in settings requiring high volumes of screening of lower-risk individuals, but efficiency of pooling declines as prevalence rises. We propose a differentiated pooling strategy that independently optimizes pool sizes for distinct groups with different probabilities of infection to further improve the efficiency of pooled testing. We compared the efficiency (results obtained per test kit used) of the differentiated strategy with a traditional pooling strategy in which all samples are processed using uniform pool sizes under a range of scenarios. For most scenarios, differentiated pooling is more efficient than traditional pooling. In scenarios examined here, an improvement in efficiency of up to 3.94 results per test kit could be obtained through differentiated versus traditional pooling, with more likely scenarios resulting in 0.12 to 0.61 additional results per kit. Under circumstances similar to those observed in a university setting, implementation of our strategy could result in an improvement in efficiency between 0.03 to 3.21 results per test kit. Our results can help identify settings, such as universities and workplaces, where differentiated pooling can conserve critical testing resources.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Teste para COVID-19 , Prevalência , Manejo de Espécimes/métodos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
11.
JAMA Oncol ; 2022 Oct 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36227604

RESUMO

Importance: Delivery of adjuvant chemotherapy can differ substantially between trial and real-world populations. Adherence metrics like relative dose intensity (RDI) cannot capture the timing of modifications and mask differences in the total amount of chemotherapy received. Objective: To compare oxaliplatin delivery between MOSAIC trial participants and patients treated in the US Oncology Network with stage III colon cancer using a longitudinal cumulative dose (LCD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used secondary data from the MOSAIC trial, an international randomized clinical trial (concluded in 2004), and electronic health records from US Oncology (2009-2018), a network of community oncology practices in the US. It included participants in MOSAIC with stage III colon cancer who were randomized to receive treatment with oxaliplatin and fluorouracil/leucovorin (n = 663) and US Oncology patients with stage III colon cancer who were treated with a modified FOLFOX-6 regimen (n = 2523). Exposures: Oxaliplatin and fluorouracil/leucovorin. Outcomes and Measures: We evaluated RDI and LCD over time and at the end of treatment in the MOSAIC and US Oncology populations. We used bootstrapping to estimate 95% confidence bands for LCD differences between the populations. Results: The 663 MOSAIC participants (296 women [44.7%]) and 2523 US Oncology patients (1245 women [49.4%]) were generally similar with respect to demographic characteristics. Median RDI was lower in US Oncology (80% in MOSAIC vs 70% in US Oncology). The LCD also suggested differences in the total amount of oxaliplatin received between populations; the final median LCD in US Oncology was 10.2% lower than in MOSAIC, equivalent to receiving 1.2 fewer treatment cycles less of oxaliplatin. This difference only began 133 days into treatment and persisted after accounting for covariates, likely in terms of more frequent oxaliplatin treatment discontinuation in US Oncology patients than their MOSAIC counterparts. Conclusions and Relevance: The study results suggest that real-world patients in community practice in the US treated with modified FOLFOX 6 received less oxaliplatin than their historical counterparts in the MOSAIC trial, with differences manifesting late in the treatment course. The LCD allowed us to identify the amount and extent of these differences, the timing of which was unclear when using RDI alone. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00275210.

12.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 91(5): 419-428, 2022 12 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36083508

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The association between HIV and asthma prevalence and manifestations remains unclear, with few studies including women. SETTING: A retrospective observational cohort study from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study and Women's Interagency HIV Study. METHODS: Asthma was defined in 2 ways: (1) self-report and (2) robust criteria requiring all the following: lack of fixed airflow obstruction, presence of wheeze on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), and report of asthma therapies. Estimates of asthma prevalence and asthma-related manifestations were compared by HIV serostatus. RESULTS: A total of 1815 men and 2122 women were included. Asthma prevalence did not differ between people with HIV (PWH) and people without HIV regardless of definition: self-report (men, 12.0% vs. 11.2%; women, 24.3% vs. 27.5%) and robust criteria (men, 5.0% vs. 3.4%; women, 12.8% vs. 13.2%). Among men with asthma, worse respiratory symptom burden was reported among those with HIV, regardless of asthma definition. Among women with self-reported asthma, those with HIV had less respiratory symptom burden. Regardless of serostatus, women with robust-defined asthma had similar respiratory symptoms across SGRQ domains and similar frequencies of phlegm, shortness of breath, and wheezing. CONCLUSIONS: Among PWH and people without HIV, asthma prevalence was 2-fold to 3-fold higher using self-reported definition rather than robust definition. In men and women, HIV was not associated with increased asthma prevalence. In men, HIV was associated with more respiratory symptoms when asthma was self-reported; the relationship was attenuated with the robust criteria. Further studies are needed to explore asthma phenotypes among PWH.


Assuntos
Síndrome de Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Asma , Infecções por HIV , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Prevalência , Estudos Retrospectivos , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Asma/complicações , Asma/epidemiologia , Asma/diagnóstico
13.
PLoS One ; 17(8): e0271755, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35976813

RESUMO

People living in rural regions in the United States face more health challenges than their non-rural counterparts which could put them at additional risks during the COVID-19 pandemic. Few studies have examined if rurality is associated with additional mortality risk among those hospitalized for COVID-19. We studied a retrospective cohort of 3,991 people hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infections discharged between March 1 and September 30, 2020 in one of 17 hospitals in North Carolina that collaborate as a clinical data research network. Patient demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and laboratory data were examined. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations of rurality with a composite outcome of death/hospice discharge. Comorbidities were more common in the rural patient population as were the number of comorbidities per patient. Overall, 505 patients died prior to discharge and 63 patients were discharged to hospice. Among rural patients, 16.5% died or were discharged to hospice vs. 13.3% in the urban cohort resulting in greater odds of death/hospice discharge (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1, 1.6). This estimate decreased minimally when adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, payer, disease comorbidities, presenting oxygen levels and cytokine levels (adjusted model OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0, 1.5). This analysis demonstrated a higher COVID-19 mortality risk among rural residents of NC. Implementing policy changes may mitigate such disparities going forward.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hospitalização , Humanos , North Carolina/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos
14.
Pharmacoepidemiol Drug Saf ; 31(12): 1219-1227, 2022 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35996832

RESUMO

PURPOSE: We aim to assess the reporting of key patient-level demographic and clinical characteristics among COVID-19 related randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: We queried English-language articles from PubMed, Web of Science, clinicaltrials.gov, and the CDC library of gray literature databases using keywords of "coronavirus," "covid," "clinical trial" and "randomized controlled trial" from January 2020 to June 2021. From the search, we conducted an initial review to rule-out duplicate entries, identify those that met inclusion criteria (i.e., had results), and exclude those that did not meet the definition of an RCT. Lastly, we abstracted the demographic and clinical characteristics reported on within each RCT. RESULTS: From the initial 43 627 manuscripts, our final eligible manuscripts consisted of 149 RCTs described in 137 articles. Most of the RCTs (113/149) studied potential treatments, while fewer studied vaccines (29), prophylaxis strategies (5), and interventions to prevent transmission among those infected (2). Study populations ranged from 10 to 38 206 participants (median = 100, IQR: 60-300). All 149 RCTs reported on age, 147 on sex, 50 on race, and 110 on the prevalence of at least one comorbidity. No RCTs reported on income, urban versus rural residence, or other indicators of socioeconomic status (SES). CONCLUSIONS: Limited reporting on race and other markers of SES make it difficult to draw conclusions about specific external target populations without making strong assumptions that treatment effects are homogenous. These findings highlight the need for more robust reporting on the clinical and demographic profiles of patients enrolled in COVID-19 related RCTs.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Demografia
15.
Lancet Glob Health ; 10(9): e1289-e1297, 2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35961352

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Globally, neonatal mortality accounts for almost half of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Aetiological agents of neonatal infection are difficult to identify because the clinical signs are non-specific. Using data from the Aetiology of Neonatal Infections in south Asia (ANISA) cohort, we aimed to describe the spectrum of infectious aetiologies of acute neonatal illness categorised post-hoc using the 2015 WHO case definitions of critical illness, clinical severe infection, and fast breathing only. METHODS: Eligible infants were aged 0-59 days with possible serious bacterial infection and healthy infants enrolled in the ANISA study in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. We applied a partial latent class Bayesian model to estimate the prevalence of 27 pathogens detectable on PCR, pathogens detected by blood culture only, and illness not attributed to any infectious aetiology. Infants with at least one clinical specimen available were included in the analysis. We assessed the prevalence of these aetiologies according to WHO's case definitions of critically ill, clinical severe infection, and infants with late onset, isolated fast breathing. For the clinical severe definition, we compared the prevalence of signs by bacterial versus viral aetiology. FINDINGS: There were 934 infants (992 episodes) in the critically ill category, 3769 (4000 episodes) in the clinical severe infection category, and 738 (771 episodes) in the late-onset isolated fast breathing category. We estimated the proportion of illness attributable to bacterial infection was 32·7% in infants in the critically ill group, 15·6% in the clinical severe infection group, and 8·8% among infants with late-onset isolated fast breathing group. An infectious aetiology was not identified in 58-82% of infants in these categories. Among 4000 episodes of clinical severe infection, those with bacterial versus viral attribution had higher proportions of hypothermia, movement only when stimulated, convulsions, and poor feeding. INTERPRETATION: Our modelled results generally support the revised WHO case definitions, although a revision of the most severe case definition could be considered. Clinical criteria do not clearly differentiate between young infants with and without infectious aetiologies. Our results highlight the need for improved point-of-care diagnostics, and further study into neonatal deaths and episodes with no identified aetiology, to ensure antibiotic stewardship and targeted interventions. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Infecções Bacterianas , Doenças Transmissíveis , Infecções Bacterianas/etiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Criança , Doenças Transmissíveis/complicações , Estado Terminal , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Organização Mundial da Saúde
16.
Epidemiology ; 33(5): 699-706, 2022 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35700187

RESUMO

Selection bias remains a subject of controversy. Existing definitions of selection bias are ambiguous. To improve communication and the conduct of epidemiologic research focused on estimating causal effects, we propose to unify the various existing definitions of selection bias in the literature by considering any bias away from the true causal effect in the referent population (the population before the selection process), due to selecting the sample from the referent population, as selection bias. Given this unified definition, selection bias can be further categorized into two broad types: type 1 selection bias owing to restricting to one or more level(s) of a collider (or a descendant of a collider) and type 2 selection bias owing to restricting to one or more level(s) of an effect measure modifier. To aid in explaining these two types-which can co-occur-we start by reviewing the concepts of the target population, the study sample, and the analytic sample. Then, we illustrate both types of selection bias using causal diagrams. In addition, we explore the differences between these two types of selection bias, and describe methods to minimize selection bias. Finally, we use an example of "M-bias" to demonstrate the advantage of classifying selection bias into these two types.


Assuntos
Viés de Seleção , Viés , Causalidade , Humanos
17.
Epidemiology ; 33(4): 559-562, 2022 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35384912

RESUMO

The union of distinct covariate sets, or the superset, is often used in proofs for the identification or the statistical consistency of an estimator when multiple sources of bias are present. However, the use of a superset can obscure important nuances. Here, we provide two illustrative examples: one in the context of missing data on outcomes, and one in which the average causal effect is transported to another target population. As these examples demonstrate, the use of supersets may indicate a parameter is not identifiable when the parameter is indeed identified. Furthermore, a series of exchangeability conditions may lead to successively weaker conditions. Future work on approaches to address multiple biases can avoid these pitfalls by considering the more general case of nonoverlapping covariate sets.


Assuntos
Modelos Estatísticos , Viés , Causalidade , Humanos
18.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 90(3): 249-255, 2022 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35195574

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is not definitively known if persons with HIV (PWH) are more likely to be SARS-CoV-2 tested or test positive than persons without HIV (PWoH). We describe SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in 6 large geographically and demographically diverse cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States. SETTING: The Corona Infectious Virus Epidemiology Team comprises 5 clinical cohorts within a health system (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA; Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States, Rockville, MD; University of North Carolina Health, Chapel Hill, NC; Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN; and Veterans Aging Cohort Study) and 1 interval cohort (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study/Women's Interagency HIV Study Combined Cohort Study). METHODS: We calculated the proportion of patients SARS-CoV-2 tested and the test positivity proportion by HIV status from March 1 to December 31, 2020. RESULTS: The cohorts ranged in size from 1675 to 31,304 PWH and 1430 to 3,742,604 PWoH. The proportion of PWH who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 (19.6%-40.5% across sites) was significantly higher than PWoH (14.8%-29.4%) in the clinical cohorts. However, among those tested, the proportion of patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 tests was comparable by HIV status; the difference in proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positivity ranged from 4.7% lower to 1.4% higher. CONCLUSIONS: Although PWH had higher testing proportions compared with PWoH, we did not find evidence of increased positivity in 6 large, diverse populations across the United States. Ongoing monitoring of testing, positivity, and COVID-19-related outcomes in PWH are needed, given availability, response, and durability of COVID-19 vaccines; emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants; and latest therapeutic options.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Infecções por HIV , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Teste para COVID-19 , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
19.
Am J Epidemiol ; 191(4): 739, 2022 03 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35020789
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